In 1900, nearly all of the roughly 200 countries in the world had endemic malaria. In 2017, there were 86 such countries and the pace of malaria elimination has accelerated in recent years: between 2000 and 2017, 20 countries achieved elimination and several others are on track to eliminate by 2020. Building off these successes, an increasing number of countries and regions are setting malaria elimination goals and developing strategies and road maps to guide and monitor progress. Global malaria organizations and donors are revising their policies in recognition and support of the growing momentum towards elimination at the country and regional levels.
Global social, economic, and environmental trends are, in most places, helping to reduce malaria. The Commission’s models show that these trends alone will lead to greatly reduced but still widespread malaria by 2050. When the impact of enhanced access to high-quality diagnosis, treatment, and vector control is factored in, the 2050 projections show a world largely malaria-free, but with low-level transmission persisting in pockets across roughly ten countries in equatorial Africa (Figure 5B).
Figure 5B ([in full report]) – Projected future effect of global trends and enhanced malaria control on malaria endemicity